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ACUS03 KWNS 050709
SWODY3
SPC AC 050708
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH AS DISCUSSED IN DAY 2 SHOULD CONTINUE A STEADY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...WHILE THE TRAILING
PORTION OF THE FRONT DECELERATES/STALLS AND EVENTUALLY ELONGATES
EAST-WEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BE
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF WHAT
WILL BE THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. POTENTIAL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION WILL BE ALSO BE
MONITORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO TUESDAY.
...TX...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. REFERENCE THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS
AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING POTENTIAL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. IF SOME MEASURE OF ORGANIZATION WOULD INDEED
OCCUR...AS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY /ALBEIT HIGHLY VARIABLE/ 00Z
ECMWF/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS COULD SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND
INTERIOR CENTRAL/EAST TX WITH SOME ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. BUT
GIVEN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY/POTENTIAL VARIABILITY...SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT CURRENT WARRANTED.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
TUESDAY...CANNOT CURRENTLY RULE OUT STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FAST MOVING TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE/BUOYANCY EXPECTED
TO BE RATHER LIMITED...A SIMILARLY LIMITED POTENTIAL/LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 09/05/2010
